Gov. Scott was elected in 2016 and sworn in on Jan. 5, 2017. Phil Scott is now serving a 5th consecutive term; the current term began Jan. 2025. The scored record above covers Vermont's outcomes during this continuous service, lagged per category (each category's lag was fixed before scoring).
Governors › Vermont
Vermont Under Phil Scott
Republican · Sworn in Jan. 5, 2017 · Now in 5th term
Vermont has tracked the typical state almost exactly under Gov. Scott — No. 7 of the 29 governors ranked — 38 of 50 are rated, the other 9 are early reads held out of the ranking — across 16 categories.
The Executive Summary
Gov. Phil Scott (R) has held Vermont's governorship since Jan. 2017; on outcome trends versus the other states, Vermont sits No. 7 of 29 ranked states, across 16 scored categories. On Scott's watch, water quality (% of systems with a violation) fell 4.5% → 2.5% while the typical state fell 5.8% → 4.9% between 2018 and 2025. Over the same service, early literacy (% of 4th-graders below basic) rose 31.5% → 41.8% while the typical state rose 34.1% → 40.0% between 2019 and 2024. In all, of the 15 scored categories with data at both ends of their measured windows, 7 moved the right way on their own numbers and 8 moved the wrong way. These are movements on the governor's watch — shared with the legislature and the economy, and the window includes COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023) and COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020) — association, not causation.
Phil Scott
Vermont · Republican · since Jan. 2017 · 5th term
Overall · citizen-weighted
No. 7 of 29
+0.15σ · 16 of 20 categories
equal-weight: +0.14σ · weighting helps
weights: Pew Research Center, Jan. 2024
| Category | Latest | Score vs. peers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honesty | — | Not numerically scored — see Integrity Record | |
| Spending discipline | — | Scoring rule in development | |
| Education scale score | 275.6 ’24 | −0.12σ | |
| Air quality AQI | 36.5 ’24 | +0.41σ | |
| Water quality % of systems with a violation | 2.5 ’25 | +0.46σ | |
| Unemployment % | 2.7 ’25 | +1.08σ | |
| Health coverage % of adults 18-64 uninsured | 6.5 ’24 | +0.62σ | |
| Tax burden % of personal income | 10.0 ’24 | −1.29σ | |
| Energy cost cents/kWh | 21.9 ’24 | −0.35σ | |
| Cost of living index, US=100 | 98.0 ’24 | +0.40σ | |
| Homicide age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 | 3.2 ’24 | +1.37σ* | |
| Teen births per 1,000 females 15-19 | 6.3 ’24 | +0.97σ | |
| Wellbeing mean poor-mental-health days of 30 | 4.9 ’24 | −0.04σ | |
| School food quality | — | Scoring rule in development | |
| School shootings | 0 ’24 | Context · 0/10yr | |
| Obesity % of adults | 29.0 ’24 | +0.58σ | |
| Early literacy % of 4th-graders below basic | 41.8 ’24 | −0.67σ | |
| Gun deaths age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 | 10.6 ’24 | +0.97σ | |
| Food-aid access index (higher = easier access) | 0.9 ’23 | +0.38σ | |
| Jobless-benefit access % of unemployed receiving UI | 31.9 ’24 | −0.02σ |
Data transparency — CDC BRFSS survey-years delivered: 8 of 8 in this governor’s window (the only state-run collection scored; BRFSS data through 2024)Full reporting
Each score blends where the state stands today with its trend over this governor’s window, vs. the other states with comparable data — 49 in most categories, fewer wherever a state-year is missing. Scores are in standard deviations (σ) — how far above or below the other states this one sits, where 0 is the middle of the pack and ±1 is a wide gap. *thin data (under 3 points). Tap ? on any row for what it measures, its chart, and the source. All provisional while the term runs. Methodology v3.0
The Rundown
No. 7 of 29 — below the national average on 4 of its 16 scored categories.
Unemployment. Among the best in the country, though it moved the wrong way: 2.5% → 2.7% while the typical state rose 3.8% → 4.0%.
Teen births (per 1,000 females 15-19). Among the best in the country, and moving the right way: 8.8 → 6.3 while the typical state fell 16.7 → 12.0.
Tax burden (% of personal income). One of the worst in the country, and losing ground: 9.9% → 10.0% while the typical state rose 5.9% → 6.0%. Worst category on the card.
Moved the wrong way on Scott's watch — 8 of 15 scored categories. unemployment 2.5 → 2.7; obesity (% of adults) 26.6 → 28.99; jobless-benefit access (% of unemployed receiving UI) 42.99 → 31.95; wellbeing (mean poor-mental-health days of 30) 3.9 → 4.9; education 286.6 → 275.6; energy cost 18.02 → 21.9; early literacy (% of 4th-graders below basic) 31.5 → 41.8; tax burden (% of personal income) 9.88 → 10.04. 7 moved the right way. Judged by each category's own printed endpoints over its measured years — the score also weighs standing against other states, which is a different question.
Exogenous events inside this window — 2. COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023); COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020). Years these events touch are outliers on several series — those moves belong to the events at least as much as to anyone in office, so they are marked on every chart on this page, and no verdict here rests on a single year.
How this is scored: 60% is where Vermont stands against the other 49 states today — it is below average on 4 of 16 scored categories, and 40% is which way it moved on Gov. Scott's watch. The same weighting applies to every governor. Because standing is the larger half, this ranks state outcomes with the sitting governor named — Gov. Scott inherited much of it, and the movement half is what changed since.
Vermont’s debt on their watch
context — not this governor’s gradeWhen Gov. Scott took office in 2017, Vermont’s state government owed $3.5 billion (fiscal 2016; Census). The latest published figure is $2.7 billion (fiscal 2024 — the Census survey runs about two years behind). A state’s debt is set by budgets a governor proposes and signs, a legislature that writes and amends them, bond votes, and the economy — it is shared, which is why it is context here and not part of the grade. Figures cover the state government only, not cities, counties or school districts — and they count bonded debt, not unfunded pension obligations, which are a separate and often large part of what a state owes. Source: Census Bureau.
And the promises beyond the bonds
Bonded debt is not the whole of what a state owes. Public pension plans in Vermont have promised benefits valued at $12.1 billion against $4.9 billion actually held — an unfunded gap of $7.2 billion, 40% funded (2022, the latest year published). When Gov. Scott took office, the gap stood at $5.7 billion (2016). These promises accumulated over decades, under many governors and legislatures — the most inherited numbers on this page — and the figures cover defined-benefit pension plans sponsored by state and local governments for their employees, so local-government plans are included alongside the state’s own. Source: Federal Reserve.
Integrity Record
facts from official records — not a scoreHonesty is not numerically scored on this site. For a governor, the record that can fairly bear on it is the Adjudicated Record: findings by bodies that cannot reach a party-line verdict — a court of record, or a state body that is evenly bipartisan by rule. A final such finding caps the grade (it never raises it); nothing else here touches the number. The two ledgers that a member of Congress carries — votes against bills they endorsed, and spoken commitments tested against roll calls — do not apply to a governor, who casts no roll-call votes and leaves no uniform speech record; they are named here so their absence is a stated boundary, not a silent gap.
Adjudicated record
the only tier that can cap a gradeRecord search for Scott: 0 of 2 admitted sources connected, 0 qualifying events. The event feeds are not yet wired, so this searches no events today — a stated gap, not a finding of innocence. What is already fixed is the rule, published before any event: a cap applies only on a final finding from an admitted body (Tier 1 → F, Tier 2 → C-, Tier 3 → B).
- Admitted — Federal court judgments (deception-map offenses) (admitted by rule — event feed not yet wired)
- Admitted — VT courts of record (criminal judgments on the deception map) (admitted by rule — event feed not yet wired)
- not admitted — VT state ethics body: not shown to be evenly bipartisan by rule (or unverified); a body without a mandated partisan balance cannot cap a grade
- excluded by rule — VT legislative impeachment / removal: a legislative majority is not an evenly-bipartisan adjudicator
What this measures: findings by courts and evenly-bipartisan bodies against Scott. What it does not: truthfulness of speech, campaign promises, or anything a partisan body decided — those are excluded on purpose. Dispute anything: challenge@politicalgrades.com. Read the rulebook.
Unemployment Rate, 2010–2025
Vermont against all 49 other states · 2025 is an 11-month average — October 2025 was never collected (federal shutdown) Vermont 50-state median Other 49 states Scored window
Annual-average unemployment rate — the headline economic series, charted in full. The shaded band is its scored window: it opens with the first full calendar year after the attribution lag, so a governor sworn in mid-year starts a year later than one sworn in that January. It tracks through the newest published data. The dashed line is the 50-state median, shown for context; scoring uses the median of the other 49 states. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics.
The Record
Show the Work
every category score, and how the overall is built from them| Education (NAEP (Nation's Report Card)) | −0.12σ · window 2019–2024 (3 pts) · state −0.81%/yr vs peers −0.63%/yr |
| Air quality (EPA AirData) | +0.41σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state −0.43%/yr vs peers +0.28%/yr |
| Water quality (EPA SDWIS/ECHO) | +0.46σ · window 2018–2025 (8 pts) · state −0.12pp/yr vs peers −0.06pp/yr |
| Unemployment (BLS LAUS) | +1.08σ · window 2018–2025 (8 pts) · state −3.1%/yr vs peers −2.5%/yr |
| Health coverage (CDC BRFSS) | +0.62σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state −5.7%/yr vs peers −6.7%/yr |
| Tax burden (Census STC ÷ BEA personal income) | −1.29σ · window 2017–2024 (8 pts) · state +0.60%/yr vs peers +0.69%/yr |
| Energy cost (EIA) | −0.35σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state +3.4%/yr vs peers +3.9%/yr |
| Cost of living (BEA) | +0.40σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state −0.46%/yr vs peers −0.02%/yr |
| Homicide (CDC WONDER) | +1.37σ · window 2018–2024 (2 pts, thin) · state −5.9%/yr vs peers +2.1%/yr |
| Teen births (CDC WONDER) | +0.97σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state −6.1%/yr vs peers −5.7%/yr |
| Wellbeing (CDC BRFSS) | −0.04σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state +3.6%/yr vs peers +3.3%/yr |
| Obesity (CDC BRFSS) | +0.58σ · window 2019–2024 (6 pts) · state +1.8%/yr vs peers +1.4%/yr |
| Early literacy (NAEP (Nation's Report Card)) | −0.67σ · window 2019–2024 (3 pts) · state +5.9%/yr vs peers +3.7%/yr |
| Gun deaths (CDC WONDER) | +0.97σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state −0.08%/yr vs peers +2.1%/yr |
| Food-aid access (USDA FNS) | +0.38σ · window 2018–2023 (5 pts) · state +1.6%/yr vs peers +1.8%/yr |
| Jobless-benefit access (US DOL ETA) | −0.02σ · window 2018–2024 (7 pts) · state −9.2%/yr vs peers −4.8%/yr |
| Overall (citizen-weighted mean of domain scores, minus transparency) | +0.15σ = weighted +0.15σ · equal-weight +0.14σ · economy +0.38 ×.185 · health +0.53 ×.152 · environment +0.43 ×.114 · public safety +1.17 ×.147 · social services +0.18 ×.112 · education −0.40 ×.152 · fiscal −1.29 ×.137 (weights renormalized over the domains present) |
| Methodology | v3.0, preregistered — directions and lags fixed before scoring; full dataset at /governors.json |
Each score blends two z-scores against the other states: where the state stands today (60%) and which way it moved over the category’s window (40%), capped at ±2.5σ. The trend is a fitted slope — log-linear, except where zero is a legal value (water quality), fitted linearly and reported in percentage points — measured against the median trend of the other states with enough data in the same window, 49 in most categories and fewer wherever a state-year is missing. Because standing carries the larger share, a positive score does not mean the trend improved: on 5 of the 16 scored categories on this page the two point opposite ways, which is why both columns are printed.
Cite this
Vermont has tracked the typical state almost exactly under Gov. Scott — No. 7 of the 29 governors ranked — 38 of 50 are rated, the other 9 are early reads held out of the ranking — across 16 categories. — Political Grades, methodology v3.0, data through 2023–2025 by category. Provisional; trend-vs-peers scoring; relative movement, not causation.
Also Tracked in Vermont
the state’s other officials on this site- Sen. Bernard Sanders (I) → Vermont’s senator on the Congress board
- Sen. Peter Welch (D) → Vermont’s senator on the Congress board
- Vermont’s House delegation — 1 member → each graded on their own legislative record