Gov. Gianforte was elected in 2020 and sworn in on Jan. 4, 2021. Greg Gianforte is now serving a 2nd consecutive term; the current term began Jan. 2025. The scored record above covers Montana's outcomes during this continuous service, lagged per category (each category's lag was fixed before scoring).
Governors › Montana
Montana Under Greg Gianforte
Republican · Sworn in Jan. 4, 2021 · Now in 2nd term
Montana has tracked the typical state almost exactly under Gov. Gianforte — No. 6 of the 29 governors ranked — 38 of 50 are rated, the other 9 are early reads held out of the ranking — across 14 categories.
The Executive Summary
Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) has held Montana's governorship since Jan. 2021; on outcome trends versus the other states, Montana sits No. 6 of 29 ranked states, across 14 scored categories. On Gianforte's watch, air quality fell 34.0 → 22.0 while the typical state rose 40.5 → 41.0 — opposite directions between 2022 and 2024. Over the same service, health coverage (% of adults 18-64 uninsured) rose 8.4% → 11.8% while the typical state rose 8.9% → 9.7% between 2022 and 2024. In all, of the 14 scored categories with data at both ends of their measured windows, 6 moved the right way on their own numbers and 7 moved the wrong way, with 1 holding about steady. These are movements on the governor's watch — shared with the legislature and the economy, and the window includes COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023) — association, not causation.
Greg Gianforte
Montana · Republican · since Jan. 2021 · 2nd term
Overall · citizen-weighted
No. 6 of 29
+0.17σ · 14 of 20 categories
equal-weight: +0.21σ · weighting hurts
weights: Pew Research Center, Jan. 2024
| Category | Latest | Score vs. peers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honesty | — | Not numerically scored — see Integrity Record | |
| Spending discipline | — | Scoring rule in development | |
| Education scale score | 279.1 ’24 | Insufficient data | |
| Air quality AQI | 22 ’24 | +2.50σ | |
| Water quality % of systems with a violation | 4.9 ’25 | +0.20σ | |
| Unemployment % | 3.3 ’25 | +0.44σ | |
| Health coverage % of adults 18-64 uninsured | 11.8 ’24 | −0.84σ | |
| Tax burden % of personal income | 6.0 ’24 | +0.10σ | |
| Energy cost cents/kWh | 12.7 ’24 | +0.24σ | |
| Cost of living index, US=100 | 94.6 ’24 | −0.70σ | |
| Homicide age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 | 4.5 ’24 | +0.27σ | |
| Teen births per 1,000 females 15-19 | 11.1 ’24 | +0.30σ | |
| Wellbeing mean poor-mental-health days of 30 | 5.1 ’24 | −0.19σ | |
| School food quality | — | Scoring rule in development | |
| School shootings | 0 ’24 | Context · 0/10yr | |
| Obesity % of adults | 31.0 ’24 | +0.40σ* | |
| Early literacy % of 4th-graders below basic | 37.8 ’24 | Insufficient data | |
| Gun deaths age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 | 20.2 ’24 | −0.27σ | |
| Food-aid access index (higher = easier access) | 0.5 ’23 | −1.13σ* | |
| Jobless-benefit access % of unemployed receiving UI | 38.3 ’24 | +0.90σ |
Data transparency — CDC BRFSS survey-years delivered: 4 of 4 in this governor’s window (the only state-run collection scored; BRFSS data through 2024)Full reporting
Each score blends where the state stands today with its trend over this governor’s window, vs. the other states with comparable data — 49 in most categories, fewer wherever a state-year is missing. Scores are in standard deviations (σ) — how far above or below the other states this one sits, where 0 is the middle of the pack and ±1 is a wide gap. *thin data (under 3 points). Tap ? on any row for what it measures, its chart, and the source. All provisional while the term runs. Methodology v3.0
The Rundown
No. 6 of 29 — below the national average on 4 of its 14 scored categories.
Air quality. Among the best in the country, and moving the right way: 34.0 → 22.0 while the typical state rose 40.5 → 41.0 — opposite directions. That trend score is pinned at the maximum — it cannot go higher.
Jobless-benefit access (% of unemployed receiving UI). Among the best in the country, and moving the right way: 32.1% → 38.3% while the typical state rose 19.9% → 22.8%.
Unemployment. Better than the typical state, though it moved the wrong way: 2.7% → 3.3% while the typical state rose 3.2% → 4.0%.
Food-aid access. One of the worst in the country, and losing ground: 0.52 → 0.50 while the typical state rose 0.77 → 0.78 — opposite directions. Worst category on the card.
Moved the wrong way on Gianforte's watch — 7 of 14 scored categories. unemployment 2.7 → 3.3; obesity (% of adults) 30.5 → 30.96; energy cost 11.33 → 12.66; tax burden (% of personal income) 5.92 → 5.99; cost of living 90.18 → 94.64; health coverage (% of adults 18-64 uninsured) 8.4 → 11.84; food-aid access 0.52 → 0.5. 6 moved the right way, 1 held about steady at the source's own precision. Judged by each category's own printed endpoints over its measured years — the score also weighs standing against other states, which is a different question.
Exogenous events inside this window — 1. COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023). Years these events touch are outliers on several series — those moves belong to the events at least as much as to anyone in office, so they are marked on every chart on this page, and no verdict here rests on a single year.
How this is scored: 60% is where Montana stands against the other 49 states today — it is below average on 4 of 14 scored categories, and 40% is which way it moved on Gov. Gianforte's watch. The same weighting applies to every governor. Because standing is the larger half, this ranks state outcomes with the sitting governor named — Gov. Gianforte inherited much of it, and the movement half is what changed since.
Montana’s debt on their watch
context — not this governor’s gradeWhen Gov. Gianforte took office in 2021, Montana’s state government owed $2.7 billion (fiscal 2020; Census). The latest published figure is $2.8 billion (fiscal 2024 — the Census survey runs about two years behind). A state’s debt is set by budgets a governor proposes and signs, a legislature that writes and amends them, bond votes, and the economy — it is shared, which is why it is context here and not part of the grade. Figures cover the state government only, not cities, counties or school districts — and they count bonded debt, not unfunded pension obligations, which are a separate and often large part of what a state owes. Source: Census Bureau.
And the promises beyond the bonds
Bonded debt is not the whole of what a state owes. Public pension plans in Montana have promised benefits valued at $24.1 billion against $13.5 billion actually held — an unfunded gap of $10.6 billion, 56% funded (2022, the latest year published). When Gov. Gianforte took office, the gap stood at $11.9 billion (2020). These promises accumulated over decades, under many governors and legislatures — the most inherited numbers on this page — and the figures cover defined-benefit pension plans sponsored by state and local governments for their employees, so local-government plans are included alongside the state’s own. Source: Federal Reserve.
Integrity Record
facts from official records — not a scoreHonesty is not numerically scored on this site. For a governor, the record that can fairly bear on it is the Adjudicated Record: findings by bodies that cannot reach a party-line verdict — a court of record, or a state body that is evenly bipartisan by rule. A final such finding caps the grade (it never raises it); nothing else here touches the number. The two ledgers that a member of Congress carries — votes against bills they endorsed, and spoken commitments tested against roll calls — do not apply to a governor, who casts no roll-call votes and leaves no uniform speech record; they are named here so their absence is a stated boundary, not a silent gap.
Adjudicated record
the only tier that can cap a gradeRecord search for Gianforte: 0 of 2 admitted sources connected, 0 qualifying events. The event feeds are not yet wired, so this searches no events today — a stated gap, not a finding of innocence. What is already fixed is the rule, published before any event: a cap applies only on a final finding from an admitted body (Tier 1 → F, Tier 2 → C-, Tier 3 → B).
- Admitted — Federal court judgments (deception-map offenses) (admitted by rule — event feed not yet wired)
- Admitted — MT courts of record (criminal judgments on the deception map) (admitted by rule — event feed not yet wired)
- not admitted — MT state ethics body: not shown to be evenly bipartisan by rule (or unverified); a body without a mandated partisan balance cannot cap a grade
- excluded by rule — MT legislative impeachment / removal: a legislative majority is not an evenly-bipartisan adjudicator
What this measures: findings by courts and evenly-bipartisan bodies against Gianforte. What it does not: truthfulness of speech, campaign promises, or anything a partisan body decided — those are excluded on purpose. Dispute anything: challenge@politicalgrades.com. Read the rulebook.
Unemployment Rate, 2010–2025
Montana against all 49 other states · 2025 is an 11-month average — October 2025 was never collected (federal shutdown) Montana 50-state median Other 49 states Scored window
Annual-average unemployment rate — the headline economic series, charted in full. The shaded band is its scored window: it opens with the first full calendar year after the attribution lag, so a governor sworn in mid-year starts a year later than one sworn in that January. It tracks through the newest published data. The dashed line is the 50-state median, shown for context; scoring uses the median of the other 49 states. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics.
The Record
Show the Work
every category score, and how the overall is built from them| Air quality (EPA AirData) | +2.50σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state −19.6%/yr vs peers 0.00%/yr · raw trend +4.37σ, capped at ±2.5 |
| Water quality (EPA SDWIS/ECHO) | +0.20σ · window 2022–2025 (4 pts) · state −0.11pp/yr vs peers +0.01pp/yr |
| Unemployment (BLS LAUS) | +0.44σ · window 2022–2025 (4 pts) · state +7.3%/yr vs peers +6.5%/yr |
| Health coverage (CDC BRFSS) | −0.84σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state +18.7%/yr vs peers +2.7%/yr |
| Tax burden (Census STC ÷ BEA personal income) | +0.10σ · window 2021–2024 (4 pts) · state −0.23%/yr vs peers +0.11%/yr |
| Energy cost (EIA) | +0.24σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state +5.7%/yr vs peers +4.0%/yr |
| Cost of living (BEA) | −0.70σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state +2.5%/yr vs peers +0.14%/yr |
| Homicide (CDC WONDER) | +0.27σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state −8.7%/yr vs peers −9.1%/yr |
| Teen births (CDC WONDER) | +0.30σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state −4.6%/yr vs peers −4.2%/yr |
| Wellbeing (CDC BRFSS) | −0.19σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state 0.00%/yr vs peers 0.00%/yr |
| Obesity (CDC BRFSS) | +0.40σ · window 2023–2024 (2 pts, thin) · state +1.5%/yr vs peers +0.69%/yr |
| Gun deaths (CDC WONDER) | −0.27σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state −8.1%/yr vs peers −3.6%/yr |
| Food-aid access (USDA FNS) | −1.13σ · window 2022–2023 (2 pts, thin) · state −3.9%/yr vs peers +2.5%/yr |
| Jobless-benefit access (US DOL ETA) | +0.90σ · window 2022–2024 (3 pts) · state +9.3%/yr vs peers +5.6%/yr |
| Overall (citizen-weighted mean of domain scores, minus transparency) | +0.17σ = weighted +0.17σ · equal-weight +0.21σ · economy −0.01 ×.185 · health −0.08 ×.152 · environment +1.35 ×.114 · public safety −0.00 ×.147 · social services −0.12 ×.112 · fiscal +0.10 ×.137 (weights renormalized over the domains present) |
| Methodology | v3.0, preregistered — directions and lags fixed before scoring; full dataset at /governors.json |
Each score blends two z-scores against the other states: where the state stands today (60%) and which way it moved over the category’s window (40%), capped at ±2.5σ. The trend is a fitted slope — log-linear, except where zero is a legal value (water quality), fitted linearly and reported in percentage points — measured against the median trend of the other states with enough data in the same window, 49 in most categories and fewer wherever a state-year is missing. Because standing carries the larger share, a positive score does not mean the trend improved: on 5 of the 14 scored categories on this page the two point opposite ways, which is why both columns are printed.
Cite this
Montana has tracked the typical state almost exactly under Gov. Gianforte — No. 6 of the 29 governors ranked — 38 of 50 are rated, the other 9 are early reads held out of the ranking — across 14 categories. — Political Grades, methodology v3.0, data through 2023–2025 by category. Provisional; trend-vs-peers scoring; relative movement, not causation.
Also Tracked in Montana
the state’s other officials on this site- Sen. Tim Sheehy (R) → Montana’s senator on the Congress board
- Sen. Steve Daines (R) → Montana’s senator on the Congress board
- Montana’s House delegation — 2 members → each graded on their own legislative record