Sept. 3, 2026Methodology v3.0 · State metrics: 12 source systems, data through 2023–2025 by metric
Political Grades
government — just the stats

GovernorsNevada

Nevada Under Joe Lombardo

Republican · Sworn in Jan. 2, 2023 · Now in 1st term

Nevada has trailed the typical state under Gov. Lombardo — an early read across 3 categories, unranked until the data thickens.

The Executive Summary

Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) has held Nevada's governorship since Jan. 2023; Nevada is scored across 3 categories but not yet ranked — every category's window is still thin. On Lombardo's watch, unemployment fell 5.4% → 5.3% while the typical state rose 3.6% → 4.0% — opposite directions between 2024 and 2025. Over the same service, water quality (% of systems with a violation) rose 7.0% → 11.4% while the typical state fell 5.2% → 4.9% — opposite directions between 2024 and 2025. In all, of the 3 scored categories with data at both ends of their measured windows, 2 moved the right way on their own numbers and 1 moved the wrong way. These are movements on the governor's watch — shared with the legislature and the economy, and the window includes COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023) — association, not causation.

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Joe Lombardo
Nevada · Republican · since Jan. 2023 · 1st term
Overall · citizen-weighted
Early
−0.64σ · 3 of 20 categories
equal-weight: −0.68σ · weighting helps
weights: Pew Research Center, Jan. 2024
CategoryLatestScore vs. peers
HonestyNot numerically scored — see Integrity Record
Spending disciplineScoring rule in development
Education scale score265.224Too early
Air quality AQI4424Insufficient data
Water quality % of systems with a violation11.425−1.13σ*
Unemployment %5.325−0.58σ*
Health coverage % of adults 18-64 uninsured17.624Insufficient data
Tax burden % of personal income6.624−0.31σ*
Energy cost cents/kWh1524Insufficient data
Cost of living index, US=100100.024Insufficient data
Homicide age-adjusted deaths per 100,000724Insufficient data
Teen births per 1,000 females 15-1912.524Insufficient data
Wellbeing mean poor-mental-health days of 305.524Insufficient data
School food qualityScoring rule in development
School shootings024Context · 4/10yr
Obesity % of adults34.324Too early
Early literacy % of 4th-graders below basic41.424Too early
Gun deaths age-adjusted deaths per 100,00017.224Insufficient data
Food-aid access index (higher = easier access)1.023Too early
Jobless-benefit access % of unemployed receiving UI28.224Insufficient data
Data transparency — CDC BRFSS survey-years delivered: 2 of 2 in this governor’s window (the only state-run collection scored; BRFSS data through 2024)Full reporting

Each score blends where the state stands today with its trend over this governor’s window, vs. the other states with comparable data — 49 in most categories, fewer wherever a state-year is missing. Scores are in standard deviations (σ) — how far above or below the other states this one sits, where 0 is the middle of the pack and ±1 is a wide gap. *thin data (under 3 points). Tap ? on any row for what it measures, its chart, and the source. All provisional while the term runs. Methodology v3.0

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The Rundown

An early read on Nevada — scored, not yet ranked.

Water quality (% of systems with a violation). Worse than the typical state, and losing ground: 7.0% → 11.4% while the typical state fell 5.2% → 4.9% — opposite directions. Worst category on the card.

Moved the wrong way on Lombardo's watch — 1 of 3 scored categories. water quality (% of systems with a violation) 7.04 → 11.39. 2 moved the right way. Judged by each category's own printed endpoints over its measured years — the score also weighs standing against other states, which is a different question.

Exogenous events inside this window — 1. COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023). Years these events touch are outliers on several series — those moves belong to the events at least as much as to anyone in office, so they are marked on every chart on this page, and no verdict here rests on a single year.

How this is scored: 60% is where Nevada stands against the other 49 states today — it is below average on 3 of 3 scored categories, and 40% is which way it moved on Gov. Lombardo's watch. The same weighting applies to every governor. Because standing is the larger half, this ranks state outcomes with the sitting governor named — Gov. Lombardo inherited much of it, and the movement half is what changed since.

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Nevada’s debt on their watch

context — not this governor’s grade

When Gov. Lombardo took office in 2023, Nevada’s state government owed $3.8 billion (fiscal 2022; Census). The latest published figure is $2.9 billion (fiscal 2024 — the Census survey runs about two years behind). A state’s debt is set by budgets a governor proposes and signs, a legislature that writes and amends them, bond votes, and the economy — it is shared, which is why it is context here and not part of the grade. Figures cover the state government only, not cities, counties or school districts — and they count bonded debt, not unfunded pension obligations, which are a separate and often large part of what a state owes. Source: Census Bureau.

$1B$2B$3B$4B202020222024COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’20–’23COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020)recession ’20$2.9 billion
State government debt outstanding, fiscal 20202024, in nominal dollars — state government only, excluding cities, counties and school districts; no inflation adjustment. Y-axis starts at zero. Source: Census Bureau. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's.
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And the promises beyond the bonds

Bonded debt is not the whole of what a state owes. Public pension plans in Nevada have promised benefits valued at $98.3 billion against $55.5 billion actually held — an unfunded gap of $42.8 billion, 56% funded (2022, the latest year published). When Gov. Lombardo took office, the gap stood at $42.8 billion (2022). These promises accumulated over decades, under many governors and legislatures — the most inherited numbers on this page — and the figures cover defined-benefit pension plans sponsored by state and local governments for their employees, so local-government plans are included alongside the state’s own. Source: Federal Reserve.

$50B$100B$150B200220122022The Great Recession (NBER: Dec 2007 – Jun 2009)Great Recession ’07–’09COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’20–’21COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020)recession ’20promised $98.3 billionheld $55.5 billion
Pension promises (top line) against plan holdings (bottom line), 20022022, in nominal dollars; the space between them is the unfunded gap. Y-axis starts at zero. Source: Federal Reserve, Enhanced Financial Accounts. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's.
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Integrity Record

facts from official records — not a score

Honesty is not numerically scored on this site. For a governor, the record that can fairly bear on it is the Adjudicated Record: findings by bodies that cannot reach a party-line verdict — a court of record, or a state body that is evenly bipartisan by rule. A final such finding caps the grade (it never raises it); nothing else here touches the number. The two ledgers that a member of Congress carries — votes against bills they endorsed, and spoken commitments tested against roll calls — do not apply to a governor, who casts no roll-call votes and leaves no uniform speech record; they are named here so their absence is a stated boundary, not a silent gap.

Adjudicated record

the only tier that can cap a grade

Record search for Lombardo: 0 of 3 admitted sources connected, 0 qualifying events. The event feeds are not yet wired, so this searches no events today — a stated gap, not a finding of innocence. What is already fixed is the rule, published before any event: a cap applies only on a final finding from an admitted body (Tier 1 → F, Tier 2 → C-, Tier 3 → B).

  • AdmittedFederal court judgments (deception-map offenses) (admitted by rule — event feed not yet wired)
  • AdmittedNV courts of record (criminal judgments on the deception map) (admitted by rule — event feed not yet wired)
  • AdmittedNevada Commission on Ethics (proposed, awaiting confirmation of the cited statute)
  • excluded by ruleNV legislative impeachment / removal: a legislative majority is not an evenly-bipartisan adjudicator

What this measures: findings by courts and evenly-bipartisan bodies against Lombardo. What it does not: truthfulness of speech, campaign promises, or anything a partisan body decided — those are excluded on purpose. Dispute anything: challenge@politicalgrades.com. Read the rulebook.

Unemployment Rate, 20102025

Nevada against all 49 other states · 2025 is an 11-month average — October 2025 was never collected (federal shutdown)
scored window (20242025)COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’20–’23COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020)recession ’2002468101214%2010201520202025took officeNevada50-state medianCOVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’20–’23COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020)recession ’200815%20152025
Nevada 50-state median Other 49 states Scored window

Annual-average unemployment rate — the headline economic series, charted in full. The shaded band is its scored window: it opens with the first full calendar year after the attribution lag, so a governor sworn in mid-year starts a year later than one sworn in that January. It tracks through the newest published data. The dashed line is the 50-state median, shown for context; scoring uses the median of the other 49 states. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics.

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The Record

Gov. Lombardo was elected in 2022 and sworn in on Jan. 2, 2023. The scored record above covers Nevada's outcomes during this continuous service, lagged per category (each category's lag was fixed before scoring).

Show the Work

every category score, and how the overall is built from them
Water quality (EPA SDWIS/ECHO)−1.13σ · window 20242025 (2 pts, thin) · state +4.3pp/yr vs peers −0.24pp/yr
Unemployment (BLS LAUS)−0.58σ · window 20242025 (2 pts, thin) · state −1.9%/yr vs peers +8.6%/yr
Tax burden (Census STC ÷ BEA personal income)−0.31σ · window 20232024 (2 pts, thin) · state −1.4%/yr vs peers −4.6%/yr
Overall (citizen-weighted mean of domain scores, minus transparency)−0.64σ = weighted −0.64σ · equal-weight −0.68σ · economy −0.58 ×.185 · fiscal −0.31 ×.137 · environment −1.13 ×.114 (weights renormalized over the domains present)
Methodologyv3.0, preregistered — directions and lags fixed before scoring; full dataset at /governors.json

Each score blends two z-scores against the other states: where the state stands today (60%) and which way it moved over the category’s window (40%), capped at ±2.5σ. The trend is a fitted slope — log-linear, except where zero is a legal value (water quality), fitted linearly and reported in percentage points — measured against the median trend of the other states with enough data in the same window, 49 in most categories and fewer wherever a state-year is missing. Because standing carries the larger share, a positive score does not mean the trend improved: on 1 of the 3 scored categories on this page the two point opposite ways, which is why both columns are printed.

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Cite this

Nevada has trailed the typical state under Gov. Lombardo — an early read across 3 categories, unranked until the data thickens. — Political Grades, methodology v3.0, data through 2023–2025 by category. Provisional; trend-vs-peers scoring; relative movement, not causation.

Also Tracked in Nevada

the state’s other officials on this site