Sept. 8, 2026Methodology v3.0 · State metrics: 12 source systems, data through 2023–2025 by metric
Political Grades
government — just the stats

The Executive Branch

Donald Trump

National outcomes compiled Sept. 8, 2026. Each number below is dated where it stands.

47th President of the United States · Republican. What follows is context, not a grade — the national numbers during Trump’s time in office, as they are published — starting with the federal spending and Treasury debt records.

This page covers only the 47th presidency. The 45th presidency (2017–2021) is tracked on its own page →

Why no overall grade?

We built a presidential grade and tested it. The only honest benchmark for a whole country — its own prior trajectory — turned out to be dominated by crisis timing: whoever inherits a bad year looks good, whoever inherits a good trend looks bad, regardless of what they did. A single ranking would measure luck, not governance, and read as partisan. So we publish the data and refuse to fake a number.

Term · 2025present

This term is too new to show outcome trends — most national series need at least two years of post-inauguration data (and many lag policy by a year or two). It fills in as the data is published, the same way a first-term governor’s record does.

The October 2025 federal government shutdown halted BLS survey collection that month. Every 2025 figure drawn from the affected surveys — unemployment and CPI, here and on the state and city pages — is computed on an eleven-month basis, flagged where it appears.

Federal spending during Trump’s term

Total U.S. federal outlays for each fiscal year of Trump’s term. That’s the whole federal budget — mostly Social Security, Medicare, defense, interest on the debt, and prior commitments already on the books before this term began — not money Trump personally directed. A president proposes, Congress appropriates, and no single official controls the total.

Nominal dollars — not adjusted for inflation. Bar lengths compare dollars of different years, so a longer bar can be higher prices rather than more spending. Do not read these bars as a real trend.

FY25
$7.01T70% in term−$1.77T deficit

Source: OMB Historical Tables, Table 1.1 (Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits: 1789-present) · figures · compiled Sept. 8, 2026. Fiscal years run Oct–Sep, so a term’s first and last fiscal year each overlap the neighbouring president’s term — marked above with the share that fell inside this term.

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The national debt on their watch

context — presidents are not graded here

When Trump took office in January 2025, the federal debt stood at $35.46 trillion (end of fiscal 2024, the last fiscal year closed before the inauguration; Treasury). As of 2026-09-03 it is $40.10 trillion (Treasury, daily). The debt rose across every completed presidency shown on this site. It is shared with the Congresses of the era — every spending and taxing bill starts there — and with the economy itself, which is why it is context here and feeds no score.

$10T$20T$30T$40T$50T202420252026Trump takes office · $35.46 trillion$40.10 trillion
Total public debt outstanding, fiscal 2024present, in nominal dollars — no adjustment for inflation or the size of the economy. Y-axis starts at zero. Source: Treasury. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's.

Terms change hands on Jan. 20; fiscal years close Sep. 30. So fiscal 2024 closed before Trump was sworn in, and the October-to-January stub of each fiscal year prints in the successor’s first figure — the boundary is disclosed rather than re-based, the same rule the outcomes card uses for calendar years.

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The promises beyond the debt

context — accumulated under many presidents and Congresses

The debt is the number everyone quotes, but it is not the whole ledger. The government’s own audited balance sheet carried $47.78 trillion in total liabilities at the end of fiscal 2025$30.33 trillion of it the debt and its interest. The largest piece beyond the debt is $15.47 trillion of federal employee and veteran benefits payable: pensions and veterans’ compensation already earned, on the books but outside the borrowing figure. These obligations accumulated over decades, under many presidents and Congresses of both parties — they are context on every president’s page, and part of no one’s score. Source: Treasury’s Financial Report data.

$10T$20T$30T$40T$50T199920122025Recession of 2001 (NBER: Mar 2001 – Nov 2001)recession ’01The Great Recession (NBER: Dec 2007 – Jun 2009)Great Recession ’07–’09COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’20–’23COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020)recession ’20all liabilities $47.78 trillionbenefits payable $15.47 trillion
Audited balance sheet of the U.S. Government, fiscal 19992025, in nominal dollars — no adjustment for inflation or the size of the economy. Y-axis starts at zero. Solid line: federal employee and veteran benefits payable. Dashed: total liabilities (the debt itself is the largest part). Source: Treasury, Financial Report of the U.S. Government. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's.

And the promises not yet on any balance sheet

Separately from its balance sheet, the government publishes what its social-insurance programs — Social Security, Medicare and smaller programs — are projected to pay out beyond what their dedicated revenues are projected to collect: $88.40 trillion over the next 75 years, in present value, as of 2025-09-30. That is a projection of current law, not a liability — which is exactly why the government’s own statements publish it separately, and why this section does not add it to the figures above. Social Security’s trustees put their program’s share at $29.30 trillion and project the combined trust funds deplete in the third quarter of 2034, after which current-law income covers 83 percent of scheduled benefits (65 percent by 2100) — all under the Trustees' intermediate (best estimate) assumptions, set in February 2026, under current law. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.

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