Barack Obama
National outcomes compiled Sept. 8, 2026. Each number below is dated where it stands.
44th President of the United States (2009–2017) · Democratic. What follows is context, not a grade — the national numbers during Obama’s time in office, shown next to the median across OECD member states.
Why no overall grade?
We built a presidential grade and tested it. The only honest benchmark for a whole country — its own prior trajectory — turned out to be dominated by crisis timing: whoever inherits a bad year looks good, whoever inherits a good trend looks bad, regardless of what they did. A single ranking would measure luck, not governance, and read as partisan. So we publish the data and refuse to fake a number.
The Executive Summary
Between 2009 and 2017, 4 of the 7 national outcomes judged against a better direction improved and 3 worsened; 4 more are reported without a judgment — no better direction, or a move below the source's published precision. The largest swings, each measured against its own starting level: unemployment rate fell 9.3 → 4.4%; firearm death rate rose 10.1 → 12.0 per 100,000. This is context, not a grade: a president shares these outcomes with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world economy, and the window includes The Great Recession (NBER: Dec 2007 – Jun 2009).
Presidency · 2009–2017
Federal spending during Obama’s term
Total U.S. federal outlays for each fiscal year of Obama’s term. That’s the whole federal budget — mostly Social Security, Medicare, defense, interest on the debt, and prior commitments already on the books before this term began — not money Obama personally directed. A president proposes, Congress appropriates, and no single official controls the total.
Nominal dollars — not adjusted for inflation. Bar lengths compare dollars of different years, so a longer bar can be higher prices rather than more spending. The same bars in comparable money — FY2025 dollars, on the government’s own outlay deflator — run $5.05T in FY2009 to $5.07T in FY2017, and FY2009 and FY2017 are only partly inside this term — the share is marked on those bars. Any two fiscal years, deflated and broken out by what the money bought, are at federal spending by year.
Source: OMB Historical Tables, Table 1.1 (Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits: 1789-present) · figures · compiled Sept. 8, 2026. Fiscal years run Oct–Sep, so a term’s first and last fiscal year each overlap the neighbouring president’s term — marked above with the share that fell inside this term.
The national debt on their watch
context — presidents are not graded hereWhen Obama took office in January 2009, the federal debt stood at $10.02 trillion (end of fiscal 2008, the last fiscal year closed before the inauguration; Treasury). At the end of fiscal 2016 — the last fiscal year closed on their watch — it was $19.57 trillion (Treasury). The debt rose across every completed presidency shown on this site. It is shared with the Congresses of the era — every spending and taxing bill starts there — and with the economy itself, which is why it is context here and feeds no score.
Terms change hands on Jan. 20; fiscal years close Sep. 30. So fiscal 2008 closed before Obama was sworn in, and the October-to-January stub of the final fiscal year prints in the successor’s first figure — the boundary is disclosed rather than re-based, the same rule the outcomes card uses for calendar years.
How the country did — 2009–2017
How each U.S. national outcome moved during the term, with the median across OECD member states alongside for context. This is not a grade: a president shares credit with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world, and outcomes lag policy by years. It’s what happened, not a scorecard. Every outcome here runs the full term, 2009–2017.
| Outcome | Start | End | Direction | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate %View source → | 9.3 ’09 | 4.4 ’17 | improved | 8.02 → 5.82 ’09–’17World Bank · modelled estimate · 38 countries |
| Inflation (CPI) %View source → | -0.36 ’09 | 2.13 ’17 | → | 1.1 → 1.82 ’09–’17World Bank · 38 countries |
| Total tax burden % of GDPView source → | 22.9 ’09 | 26.5 ’17 | → | 31.1 → 33.7 ’09–’17OECD · 38 countries |
| Federal receipts % of GDPView source → | 14.5 ’09 | 17.1 ’17 | → | — |
| Uninsured, adults 18–64 %View source → | 21.2 ’09 | 12.8 ’17 | improved | 0 → 0 ’09–’17OECD · 33–38 countriesflat at 0 in every year 2000–2024different basis — this source puts the U.S. at 9.2 in 2017, not 12.8 |
| Adult obesity %View source → | 27.8 ’09 | 31 ’17 | worsened | 16.7 → 16.6 ’14–’17OECD · 22–25 countries |
| Teen birth rate per 1,000View source → | 37.9 ’09 | 18.8 ’17 | improved | 13.98 → 8.12 ’09–’17World Bank · modelled estimate · 38 countries |
| Food insecurity % of householdsView source → | 14.7 ’09 | 11.8 ’17 | improved | 8.9 → 6.8 ’15–’17FAO · 35 countriesdifferent basis — this source puts the U.S. at 8.9 in 2017, not 11.8 |
| Homicide rate per 100,000View source → | 5.5 ’09 | 6.2 ’17 | worsened | 1.1 → 0.8 ’09–’17OECD · 37–38 countriesdifferent basis — this source puts the U.S. at 5.8 in 2017, not 6.2 |
| Firearm death rate per 100,000View source → | 10.1 ’09 | 12 ’17 | worsened | — |
| 8th-grade math (NAEP) scale scorepublished every 2–3 yearsView source → | 281.7 ’09 | 282 ’17 | no changeboth ends print as 282 at the source’s own precision | — |
U.S. series: BLS, CDC WONDER, CDC/NCHS, NCES/NAEP, OECD, OMB Historical Tables, USDA ERS — each row’s “View source” opens the series behind its numbers. Peer medians: FAO, OECD, World Bank — the median value across OECD member states, not any one country’s value, over the country count shown on each row (membership and reporting both change year to year). “Direction” marks whether the number moved the better way for that single metric; it is never summed into an overall score. “→” marks a context metric with no better direction — inflation (cpi), total tax burden, federal receipts are reported, not judged. “No change” means both endpoints round to the same figure the source itself publishes, so no move can be claimed. The peer column carries its own years because several of those series begin later than the U.S. one. The two food-security measures are not like for like — the U.S. figure is USDA household food insecurity, the peer figure is an FAO population measure that FAO publishes only as three-year moving averages, dated here by the middle year of each window.
The economy rows, drawn
The same numbers as the card above, year by year instead of endpoint to endpoint — because on some series the endpoints hide the shape of what happened in between. Drawn, not judged: each chart states the metric’s own direction status from the card.
The same measures, three records
The identical metric set for every completed presidential term in this file — matched by series, not chosen here. Compared on 11 of 11 metrics on Obama’s card — the whole card matched. Each line runs from the value at the start of the measured window to the value at the end: open circle the start, filled circle the end. Where the export carries a peer median on the same basis, a dashed rail above the line shows what the median OECD member state did in the same years. This is not a grade: no score, no rank, no winner, and no count of who moved more rows the better way. Nothing here is added up across metrics.
The terms are not the same length — Obama 44th 8 years, Trump 45th 4 years and Biden 46th 4 years. A longer window has more years in which a number can move, in either direction. Each row is also labelled with the years its own source actually covers, which is not always the whole term.
Obama 44th 9.3 in 2009 → 4.4 in 2017 · improved · peer median 8.02 in 2009 → 5.82 in 2017, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)
Trump 45th 4.4 in 2017 → 5.3 in 2021 · worsened · peer median 5.82 in 2017 → 6.1 in 2021, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)
Biden 46th 5.3 in 2021 → 4.3 in 2025 · improved · 2025: 11-month average — October 2025 was never collected (federal shutdown) · peer median 6.1 in 2021 → 5.44 in 2025, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)
Obama 44th -0.36 in 2009 → 2.13 in 2017 · reported, not judged · peer median 1.1 in 2009 → 1.82 in 2017, 38 countries (World Bank)
Trump 45th 2.13 in 2017 → 4.7 in 2021 · reported, not judged · peer median 1.82 in 2017 → 2.82 in 2021, 38 countries (World Bank)
Biden 46th 4.7 in 2021 → 2.63 in 2025 · reported, not judged · 2025: computed on an 11-month basis — October 2025 CPI was never collected (federal shutdown) · peer median 2.82 in 2021 → 2.84 in 2025, 37–38 countries (World Bank)
Obama 44th 22.9 in 2009 → 26.5 in 2017 · reported, not judged · peer median 31.1 in 2009 → 33.7 in 2017, 38 countries (OECD)
Trump 45th 26.5 in 2017 → 26.8 in 2021 · reported, not judged · peer median 33.7 in 2017 → 34.4 in 2021, 38 countries (OECD)
Biden 46th 26.8 in 2021 → 25.6 in 2024 · reported, not judged · measured 2021–2024 of the 2021–2025 term · peer median 34.4 in 2021 → 35.2 in 2024, 36–38 countries (OECD)
Obama 44th 14.5 in 2009 → 17.1 in 2017 · reported, not judged
Trump 45th 17.1 in 2017 → 17.6 in 2021 · reported, not judged
Biden 46th 17.6 in 2021 → 17.3 in 2025 · reported, not judged
Obama 44th 21.2 in 2009 → 12.8 in 2017 · improved
Trump 45th 12.8 in 2017 → 12.6 in 2021 · improved
Biden 46th 12.6 in 2021 → 11.6 in 2024 · improved · measured 2021–2024 of the 2021–2025 term
Obama 44th 27.8 in 2009 → 31 in 2017 · worsened · peer median 16.7 in 2014 → 16.6 in 2017, 22–25 countries (OECD)
Trump 45th 31 in 2017 → 33.5 in 2021 · worsened · peer median 16.6 in 2017 → 18.4 in 2019, 22 countries (OECD)
Biden 46th 33.5 in 2021 → 34.2 in 2024 · worsened · measured 2021–2024 of the 2021–2025 term
Obama 44th 37.9 in 2009 → 18.8 in 2017 · improved · peer median 13.98 in 2009 → 8.12 in 2017, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)
Trump 45th 18.8 in 2017 → 13.9 in 2021 · improved · peer median 8.12 in 2017 → 6.03 in 2021, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)
Biden 46th 13.9 in 2021 → 12.6 in 2024 · improved · measured 2021–2024 of the 2021–2025 term · peer median 6.03 in 2021 → 5.04 in 2024, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)
Obama 44th 14.7 in 2009 → 11.8 in 2017 · improved
Trump 45th 11.8 in 2017 → 10.2 in 2021 · improved
Biden 46th 10.2 in 2021 → 13.7 in 2024 · worsened · measured 2021–2024 of the 2021–2025 term
Obama 44th 5.5 in 2009 → 6.2 in 2017 · worsened
Trump 45th 6.2 in 2017 → 8.2 in 2021 · worsened
Biden 46th 8.2 in 2021 → 6.2 in 2024 · improved · measured 2021–2024 of the 2021–2025 term
Obama 44th 10.1 in 2009 → 12 in 2017 · worsened
Trump 45th 12 in 2017 → 14.6 in 2021 · worsened
Biden 46th 14.6 in 2021 → 12.8 in 2024 · improved · measured 2021–2024 of the 2021–2025 term
Obama 44th 281.7 in 2009 → 282 in 2017 · no change at the source’s own precision
Trump 45th 282 in 2017 → 281 in 2019 · worsened · measured 2017–2019 of the 2017–2021 term
Biden 46th 273.1 in 2022 → 272.2 in 2024 · worsened · measured 2022–2024 of the 2021–2025 term
Every row shows a movement during a term, not a result of it: a president shares credit with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world, and national outcomes lag policy by years. “Improved” and “worsened” describe the single number on that line, in the direction its own source treats as better; they are never summed into a score, a rank or a total. Rows marked “reported, not judged” have no better direction at all — they are shown because they are part of the same fixed set, not because a move in either direction would be good. The rule set is the same for every term on this page, and the same on every president’s page.
The Rundown
4 of the 7 outcomes with a better direction improved between 2009 and 2017, 3 worsened. Not a grade.
Unemployment rate. 9.3 → 4.4% between 2009 and 2017 — fell.
Firearm death rate. 10.1 → 12.0 per 100,000 between 2009 and 2017 — rose.
The rest of the ledger — 3 worsened, 4 improved in all. Also worsened: homicide rate 5.5 → 6.2 per 100,000; adult obesity 27.8 → 31.0%. Also improved: teen birth rate 37.9 → 18.8 per 1,000; uninsured, adults 18–64 21.2 → 12.8%; food insecurity 14.7 → 11.8% of households. Years and caveats for each are on the card above.
Where the window starts and stops. Terms change hands on Jan. 20, but these are calendar-year figures, so 2017 is a year Obama governed about three weeks of — and it is also the next president's starting line. The same number closes this record and opens theirs.
Exogenous events inside this window — 1. The Great Recession (NBER: Dec 2007 – Jun 2009). Years these events touch are outliers on several series — those moves belong to the events at least as much as to anyone in office, so they are marked on every chart on this page, and no verdict here rests on a single year.
Against other countries — 3 comparable outcomes. The U.S. sits ahead of the peer median on 1 of 3: unemployment rate (4.4% against a 5.82% median across 38 countries, 2017). That is a standing at the end of the term, not a move during it. The other 8 outcomes are not counted — a different definition abroad, no peer figure at the endpoint year, or no better direction to compare.
Tracked but not judged — 4 of 11. Inflation (CPI) (reported, not judged: this series has no single better direction); Total tax burden (reported, not judged: this series has no single better direction); Federal receipts (reported, not judged: this series has no single better direction); 8th-grade math (NAEP) (the move is smaller than the scale's published precision). Counted in neither column above.
Why there is no grade: we built one, ran it, and it measured crisis timing rather than governance — whoever inherits a bad year looks good. And why there is no "if Obama were a governor" rank: for most of these outcomes the national number and the state numbers are the same measurement at two levels of aggregation, so the national figure tends to land inside the pack rather than at either end. We ran it anyway, and it could not separate the completed presidencies from one another — which makes it a description of arithmetic, not of a record. A president shares these outcomes with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world economy.
The promises beyond the debt
context — accumulated under many presidents and CongressesThe debt is the number everyone quotes, but it is not the whole ledger. The government’s own audited balance sheet carried $47.78 trillion in total liabilities at the end of fiscal 2025 — $30.33 trillion of it the debt and its interest. The largest piece beyond the debt is $15.47 trillion of federal employee and veteran benefits payable: pensions and veterans’ compensation already earned, on the books but outside the borrowing figure. These obligations accumulated over decades, under many presidents and Congresses of both parties — they are context on every president’s page, and part of no one’s score. Source: Treasury’s Financial Report data.
And the promises not yet on any balance sheet
Separately from its balance sheet, the government publishes what its social-insurance programs — Social Security, Medicare and smaller programs — are projected to pay out beyond what their dedicated revenues are projected to collect: $88.40 trillion over the next 75 years, in present value, as of 2025-09-30. That is a projection of current law, not a liability — which is exactly why the government’s own statements publish it separately, and why this section does not add it to the figures above. Social Security’s trustees put their program’s share at $29.30 trillion and project the combined trust funds deplete in the third quarter of 2034, after which current-law income covers 83 percent of scheduled benefits (65 percent by 2100) — all under the Trustees' intermediate (best estimate) assumptions, set in February 2026, under current law. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.