Sept. 8, 2026Methodology v3.0 · State metrics: 12 source systems, data through 2023–2025 by metric
Political Grades
government — just the stats

The Executive Branch

Joseph R. Biden

National outcomes compiled Sept. 8, 2026. Each number below is dated where it stands.

46th President of the United States (2021–2025) · Democratic. What follows is context, not a grade — the national numbers during Biden’s time in office, shown next to the median across OECD member states.

Why no overall grade?

We built a presidential grade and tested it. The only honest benchmark for a whole country — its own prior trajectory — turned out to be dominated by crisis timing: whoever inherits a bad year looks good, whoever inherits a good trend looks bad, regardless of what they did. A single ranking would measure luck, not governance, and read as partisan. So we publish the data and refuse to fake a number.

The Executive Summary

Between 2021 and 2025, 5 of the 8 national outcomes judged against a better direction improved and 3 worsened; 3 more are reported without a judgment — no better direction, or a move below the source's published precision. The largest swings, each measured against its own starting level: food insecurity rose 10.2 → 13.7% of households; homicide rate fell 8.2 → 6.2 per 100,000. This is context, not a grade: a president shares these outcomes with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world economy, and the window includes COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023).

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Presidency · 20212025

Federal spending during Biden’s term

Total U.S. federal outlays for each fiscal year of Biden’s term. That’s the whole federal budget — mostly Social Security, Medicare, defense, interest on the debt, and prior commitments already on the books before this term began — not money Biden personally directed. A president proposes, Congress appropriates, and no single official controls the total.

Nominal dollars — not adjusted for inflation. Bar lengths compare dollars of different years, so a longer bar can be higher prices rather than more spending. The same bars in comparable money — FY2025 dollars, on the government’s own outlay deflator — run $8.01T in FY2021 to $7.01T in FY2025, and FY2021 and FY2025 are only partly inside this term — the share is marked on those bars. Any two fiscal years, deflated and broken out by what the money bought, are at federal spending by year.

FY21
COVID-19$6.82T70% in term−$2.77T deficit
FY22
COVID-19$6.27T−$1.37T deficit
FY23
COVID-19$6.13T−$1.69T deficit
FY24
$6.74T−$1.82T deficit
FY25
$7.01T30% in term−$1.77T deficit

Source: OMB Historical Tables, Table 1.1 (Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits: 1789-present) · figures · compiled Sept. 8, 2026. Fiscal years run Oct–Sep, so a term’s first and last fiscal year each overlap the neighbouring president’s term — marked above with the share that fell inside this term.

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The national debt on their watch

context — presidents are not graded here

When Biden took office in January 2021, the federal debt stood at $26.95 trillion (end of fiscal 2020, the last fiscal year closed before the inauguration; Treasury). At the end of fiscal 2024 — the last fiscal year closed on their watch — it was $35.46 trillion (Treasury). The debt rose across every completed presidency shown on this site. It is shared with the Congresses of the era — every spending and taxing bill starts there — and with the economy itself, which is why it is context here and feeds no score.

$10T$20T$30T$40T202020222024COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’20–’23COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020)recession ’20Biden takes office · $26.95 trillion$35.46 trillion
Total public debt outstanding, fiscal 2020fiscal 2024, in nominal dollars — no adjustment for inflation or the size of the economy. Y-axis starts at zero. Source: Treasury. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's.

Terms change hands on Jan. 20; fiscal years close Sep. 30. So fiscal 2020 closed before Biden was sworn in, and the October-to-January stub of the final fiscal year prints in the successor’s first figure — the boundary is disclosed rather than re-based, the same rule the outcomes card uses for calendar years.

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How the country did — 20212025

How each U.S. national outcome moved during the term, with the median across OECD member states alongside for context. This is not a grade: a president shares credit with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world, and outcomes lag policy by years. It’s what happened, not a scorecard. The sources do not all cover the whole term: rows begin between 2021 and 2022 and end between 2024 and 2025. Each row prints the years it covers — those years, not the term in the heading, are what the number describes.

The October 2025 federal government shutdown halted BLS survey collection that month. Every 2025 figure drawn from the affected surveys — unemployment and CPI, here and on the state and city pages — is computed on an eleven-month basis, flagged where it appears.

OutcomeStartEndDirectionPeer median
Unemployment rate %View source →5.3 ’214.3 ’2511-month average — October 2025 was never collected (federal shutdown)improved6.15.44 ’21’25World Bank · modelled estimate · 38 countries
Inflation (CPI) %View source →4.7 ’212.63 ’25computed on an 11-month basis — October 2025 CPI was never collected (federal shutdown)2.822.84 ’21’25World Bank · 37–38 countries
Total tax burden % of GDPmeasured 2021–2024 of the termView source →26.8 ’2125.6 ’2434.435.2 ’21’24OECD · 36–38 countries
Federal receipts % of GDPView source →17.6 ’2117.3 ’25
Uninsured, adults 18–64 %measured 2021–2024 of the termView source →12.6 ’2111.6 ’24improved00 ’21’24OECD · 37–38 countriesflat at 0 in every year 20002024different basis — this source puts the U.S. at 8.2 in 2024, not 11.6
Adult obesity %measured 2021–2024 of the termView source →33.5 ’2134.2 ’24worsened
Teen birth rate per 1,000measured 2021–2024 of the termView source →13.9 ’2112.6 ’24improved6.035.04 ’21’24World Bank · modelled estimate · 38 countries
Food insecurity % of householdsmeasured 2021–2024 of the termView source →10.2 ’2113.7 ’24worsened7.47.8 ’21’23FAO · 37 countriesdifferent basis — this source puts the U.S. at 8.6 in 2021, not 10.2
Homicide rate per 100,000measured 2021–2024 of the termView source →8.2 ’216.2 ’24improved0.70.9 ’21’23OECD · 30–36 countriesdifferent basis — this source puts the U.S. at 7.6 in 2021, not 8.2
Firearm death rate per 100,000measured 2021–2024 of the termView source →14.6 ’2112.8 ’24improved
8th-grade math (NAEP) scale scoremeasured 2022–2024 of the term · published every 2–3 yearsView source →273.1 ’22272.2 ’24worsened

U.S. series: BLS, CDC WONDER, CDC/NCHS, NCES/NAEP, OECD, OMB Historical Tables, USDA ERS — each row’s “View source” opens the series behind its numbers. Peer medians: FAO, OECD, World Bank — the median value across OECD member states, not any one country’s value, over the country count shown on each row (membership and reporting both change year to year). “Direction” marks whether the number moved the better way for that single metric; it is never summed into an overall score. “→” marks a context metric with no better direction — inflation (cpi), total tax burden, federal receipts are reported, not judged. The peer column carries its own years because several of those series begin later than the U.S. one. The two food-security measures are not like for like — the U.S. figure is USDA household food insecurity, the peer figure is an FAO population measure that FAO publishes only as three-year moving averages, dated here by the middle year of each window.

The economy rows, drawn

The same numbers as the card above, year by year instead of endpoint to endpoint — because on some series the endpoints hide the shape of what happened in between. Drawn, not judged: each chart states the metric’s own direction status from the card.

Unemployment rate % · lower is better
510’21’22’23’24’25COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’21–’234.3peer median 5.44
U.S. series: BLS. Annual values, no interpolation, y-axis from zero. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's. Dashed line: median across OECD member states (World Bank), same basis.
Inflation (CPI) % · reported, not judged — no better direction
510’21’22’23’24’25COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’21–’232.63peer median 2.84
U.S. series: BLS. Annual values, no interpolation, y-axis from zero. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's. Dashed line: median across OECD member states (World Bank), same basis.
Total tax burden % of GDP · reported, not judged — no better direction
10203040’21’22’23’24COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’21–’2325.6peer median 35.2
U.S. series: OECD. Annual values, no interpolation, y-axis from zero. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's. Dashed line: median across OECD member states (OECD), same basis.
Federal receipts % of GDP · reported, not judged — no better direction
1020’21’22’23’24’25COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’21–’2317.3
U.S. series: OMB Historical Tables,. Annual values, no interpolation, y-axis from zero. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's.
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The same measures, three records

The identical metric set for every completed presidential term in this file — matched by series, not chosen here. Compared on 11 of 11 metrics on Biden’s card — the whole card matched. Each line runs from the value at the start of the measured window to the value at the end: open circle the start, filled circle the end. Where the export carries a peer median on the same basis, a dashed rail above the line shows what the median OECD member state did in the same years. This is not a grade: no score, no rank, no winner, and no count of who moved more rows the better way. Nothing here is added up across metrics.

The terms are not the same length Obama 44th 8 years, Trump 45th 4 years and Biden 46th 4 years. A longer window has more years in which a number can move, in either direction. Each row is also labelled with the years its own source actually covers, which is not always the whole term.

Unemployment rate % · lower is better
Unemployment rate, in %. Horizontal axis runs from 4.3 on the left to 9.3 on the right; lower is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 9.3 in 2009 to 4.4 in 2017, improved. Trump, 45th: 4.4 in 2017 to 5.3 in 2021, worsened. Biden, 46th: 5.3 in 2021 to 4.3 in 2025, improved.Obama 44th20092017peer 5.82 ’179.34.4Trump 45th20172021peer 6.1 ’214.45.3Biden 46th20212025peer 5.44 ’255.34.34.39.3← lower is better

Obama 44th 9.3 in 20094.4 in 2017 · improved · peer median 8.02 in 20095.82 in 2017, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)

Trump 45th 4.4 in 20175.3 in 2021 · worsened · peer median 5.82 in 20176.1 in 2021, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)

Biden 46th 5.3 in 20214.3 in 2025 · improved · 2025: 11-month average — October 2025 was never collected (federal shutdown) · peer median 6.1 in 20215.44 in 2025, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)

U.S. series: BLS. Peer median: World Bank — Unemployment, total (% of total labor force), modeled ILO estimate (indicator SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS) — the median value across OECD member states, not any one country’s value. This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Inflation (CPI) % · reported, not judged — no better direction
Inflation (CPI), in %. Horizontal axis runs from -0.36 on the left to 8.24 on the right; no better direction for this measure — it is reported, not judged. Obama, 44th: -0.36 in 2009 to 2.13 in 2017, reported, not judged. Trump, 45th: 2.13 in 2017 to 4.7 in 2021, reported, not judged. Biden, 46th: 4.7 in 2021 to 2.63 in 2025, reported, not judged.Obama 44th20092017peer 1.82 ’17-0.362.13Trump 45th20172021peer 2.82 ’212.134.7Biden 46th20212025peer 2.84 ’254.72.63-0.368.24reported, not judged — no better direction

Obama 44th -0.36 in 20092.13 in 2017 · reported, not judged · peer median 1.1 in 20091.82 in 2017, 38 countries (World Bank)

Trump 45th 2.13 in 20174.7 in 2021 · reported, not judged · peer median 1.82 in 20172.82 in 2021, 38 countries (World Bank)

Biden 46th 4.7 in 20212.63 in 2025 · reported, not judged · 2025: computed on an 11-month basis — October 2025 CPI was never collected (federal shutdown) · peer median 2.82 in 20212.84 in 2025, 37–38 countries (World Bank)

U.S. series: BLS. Peer median: World Bank — Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) (indicator FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG) — the median value across OECD member states, not any one country’s value. This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Total tax burden % of GDP · reported, not judged — no better direction
Total tax burden, in % of GDP. Horizontal axis runs from 22.9 on the left to 35.2 on the right; no better direction for this measure — it is reported, not judged. Obama, 44th: 22.9 in 2009 to 26.5 in 2017, reported, not judged. Trump, 45th: 26.5 in 2017 to 26.8 in 2021, reported, not judged. Biden, 46th: 26.8 in 2021 to 25.6 in 2024, reported, not judged.Obama 44th20092017peer 33.7 ’1722.926.5Trump 45th20172021peer 34.4 ’2126.526.8Biden 46th20212024peer 35.2 ’2426.825.622.935.2reported, not judged — no better direction

Obama 44th 22.9 in 200926.5 in 2017 · reported, not judged · peer median 31.1 in 200933.7 in 2017, 38 countries (OECD)

Trump 45th 26.5 in 201726.8 in 2021 · reported, not judged · peer median 33.7 in 201734.4 in 2021, 38 countries (OECD)

Biden 46th 26.8 in 202125.6 in 2024 · reported, not judged · measured 20212024 of the 20212025 term · peer median 34.4 in 202135.2 in 2024, 36–38 countries (OECD)

U.S. series: OECD. Peer median: OECD Global Revenue Statistics (DF_RSGLOBAL): total tax revenue, general government (S13), % of GDP; median computed here across the 38 OECD member states from their raw country series (keyless SDMX) — the median value across OECD member states, not any one country’s value.
Federal receipts % of GDP · reported, not judged — no better direction
Federal receipts, in % of GDP. Horizontal axis runs from 14.5 on the left to 17.6 on the right; no better direction for this measure — it is reported, not judged. Obama, 44th: 14.5 in 2009 to 17.1 in 2017, reported, not judged. Trump, 45th: 17.1 in 2017 to 17.6 in 2021, reported, not judged. Biden, 46th: 17.6 in 2021 to 17.3 in 2025, reported, not judged.Obama 44th2009201714.517.1Trump 45th2017202117.117.6Biden 46th2021202517.617.314.517.6reported, not judged — no better direction

Obama 44th 14.5 in 200917.1 in 2017 · reported, not judged

Trump 45th 17.1 in 201717.6 in 2021 · reported, not judged

Biden 46th 17.6 in 202117.3 in 2025 · reported, not judged

U.S. series: OMB Historical Tables. No peer median is published on the same basis for this measure. This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Uninsured, adults 18–64 % · lower is better
Uninsured, adults 18–64, in %. Horizontal axis runs from 11.6 on the left to 21.2 on the right; lower is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 21.2 in 2009 to 12.8 in 2017, improved. Trump, 45th: 12.8 in 2017 to 12.6 in 2021, improved. Biden, 46th: 12.6 in 2021 to 11.6 in 2024, improved.Obama 44th2009201721.212.8Trump 45th2017202112.812.6Biden 46th2021202412.611.611.621.2← lower is better

Obama 44th 21.2 in 200912.8 in 2017 · improved

Trump 45th 12.8 in 201712.6 in 2021 · improved

Biden 46th 12.6 in 202111.6 in 2024 · improved · measured 20212024 of the 20212025 term

U.S. series: CDC/NCHS. Peer median not drawn — it measures on a different basis than the U.S. number beside it (stated on the outcomes card above). This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Adult obesity % · lower is better
Adult obesity, in %. Horizontal axis runs from 16.6 on the left to 34.2 on the right; lower is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 27.8 in 2009 to 31 in 2017, worsened. Trump, 45th: 31 in 2017 to 33.5 in 2021, worsened. Biden, 46th: 33.5 in 2021 to 34.2 in 2024, worsened.Obama 44th20092017peer 16.6 ’1727.831Trump 45th20172021peer 18.4 ’193133.5Biden 46th2021202433.534.216.634.2← lower is better

Obama 44th 27.8 in 200931 in 2017 · worsened · peer median 16.7 in 201416.6 in 2017, 22–25 countries (OECD)

Trump 45th 31 in 201733.5 in 2021 · worsened · peer median 16.6 in 201718.4 in 2019, 22 countries (OECD)

Biden 46th 33.5 in 202134.2 in 2024 · worsened · measured 20212024 of the 20212025 term

U.S. series: OECD. Peer median: OECD Health Statistics -- Risk factors for health: Body weight (share of population obese, BMI>=30, self-reported), via keyless SDMX REST at sdmx.oecd.org — the median value across OECD member states, not any one country’s value. No peer median is published on the same basis for Biden 46th. This series is reported with a lag of up to 2 years, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Teen birth rate per 1,000 · lower is better
Teen birth rate, in per 1,000. Horizontal axis runs from 5.04 on the left to 37.9 on the right; lower is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 37.9 in 2009 to 18.8 in 2017, improved. Trump, 45th: 18.8 in 2017 to 13.9 in 2021, improved. Biden, 46th: 13.9 in 2021 to 12.6 in 2024, improved.Obama 44th20092017peer 8.12 ’1737.918.8Trump 45th20172021peer 6.03 ’2118.813.9Biden 46th20212024peer 5.04 ’2413.912.65.0437.9← lower is better

Obama 44th 37.9 in 200918.8 in 2017 · improved · peer median 13.98 in 20098.12 in 2017, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)

Trump 45th 18.8 in 201713.9 in 2021 · improved · peer median 8.12 in 20176.03 in 2021, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)

Biden 46th 13.9 in 202112.6 in 2024 · improved · measured 20212024 of the 20212025 term · peer median 6.03 in 20215.04 in 2024, 38 countries (World Bank, modelled estimate)

U.S. series: CDC/NCHS. Peer median: World Bank World Development Indicators, 'Adolescent fertility rate' SP.ADO.TFRT (keyless), median computed across the 38 OECD member states — the median value across OECD member states, not any one country’s value. This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Food insecurity % of households · lower is better
Food insecurity, in % of households. Horizontal axis runs from 10.2 on the left to 14.7 on the right; lower is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 14.7 in 2009 to 11.8 in 2017, improved. Trump, 45th: 11.8 in 2017 to 10.2 in 2021, improved. Biden, 46th: 10.2 in 2021 to 13.7 in 2024, worsened.Obama 44th2009201714.711.8Trump 45th2017202111.810.2Biden 46th2021202410.213.710.214.7← lower is better

Obama 44th 14.7 in 200911.8 in 2017 · improved

Trump 45th 11.8 in 201710.2 in 2021 · improved

Biden 46th 10.2 in 202113.7 in 2024 · worsened · measured 20212024 of the 20212025 term

U.S. series: USDA ERS. Peer median not drawn — it measures on a different basis than the U.S. number beside it (stated on the outcomes card above). This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Homicide rate per 100,000 · lower is better
Homicide rate, in per 100,000. Horizontal axis runs from 5.5 on the left to 8.2 on the right; lower is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 5.5 in 2009 to 6.2 in 2017, worsened. Trump, 45th: 6.2 in 2017 to 8.2 in 2021, worsened. Biden, 46th: 8.2 in 2021 to 6.2 in 2024, improved.Obama 44th200920175.56.2Trump 45th201720216.28.2Biden 46th202120248.26.25.58.2← lower is better

Obama 44th 5.5 in 20096.2 in 2017 · worsened

Trump 45th 6.2 in 20178.2 in 2021 · worsened

Biden 46th 8.2 in 20216.2 in 2024 · improved · measured 20212024 of the 20212025 term

U.S. series: CDC WONDER. Peer median not drawn — it measures on a different basis than the U.S. number beside it (stated on the outcomes card above). This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
Firearm death rate per 100,000 · lower is better
Firearm death rate, in per 100,000. Horizontal axis runs from 10.1 on the left to 14.6 on the right; lower is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 10.1 in 2009 to 12 in 2017, worsened. Trump, 45th: 12 in 2017 to 14.6 in 2021, worsened. Biden, 46th: 14.6 in 2021 to 12.8 in 2024, improved.Obama 44th2009201710.112Trump 45th201720211214.6Biden 46th2021202414.612.810.114.6← lower is better

Obama 44th 10.1 in 200912 in 2017 · worsened

Trump 45th 12 in 201714.6 in 2021 · worsened

Biden 46th 14.6 in 202112.8 in 2024 · improved · measured 20212024 of the 20212025 term

U.S. series: CDC WONDER. No peer median is published on the same basis for this measure. This series is reported with a lag of up to 1 year, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent.
8th-grade math (NAEP) scale score · higher is better
8th-grade math (NAEP), in scale score. Horizontal axis runs from 272.2 on the left to 282 on the right; higher is better for this measure. Obama, 44th: 281.7 in 2009 to 282 in 2017, no change at the source’s own precision. Trump, 45th: 282 in 2017 to 281 in 2019, worsened. Biden, 46th: 273.1 in 2022 to 272.2 in 2024, worsened.Obama 44th20092017281.7282Trump 45th20172019282281Biden 46th20222024273.1272.2272.2282higher is better →

Obama 44th 281.7 in 2009282 in 2017 · no change at the source’s own precision

Trump 45th 282 in 2017281 in 2019 · worsened · measured 20172019 of the 20172021 term

Biden 46th 273.1 in 2022272.2 in 2024 · worsened · measured 20222024 of the 20212025 term

U.S. series: NCES/NAEP. No peer median is published on the same basis for this measure. This series is reported with a lag of up to 2 years, and the windows here are the calendar terms — not shifted to allow for it, so the shift is visible rather than silent. Published every 2–3 years.

Every row shows a movement during a term, not a result of it: a president shares credit with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world, and national outcomes lag policy by years. “Improved” and “worsened” describe the single number on that line, in the direction its own source treats as better; they are never summed into a score, a rank or a total. Rows marked “reported, not judged” have no better direction at all — they are shown because they are part of the same fixed set, not because a move in either direction would be good. The rule set is the same for every term on this page, and the same on every president’s page.

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The Rundown

5 of the 8 outcomes with a better direction improved between 2021 and 2025, 3 worsened. Not a grade.

Food insecurity. 10.2 → 13.7% of households between 2021 and 2024 — rose.

Homicide rate. 8.2 → 6.2 per 100,000 between 2021 and 2024 — fell.

The rest of the ledger — 3 worsened, 5 improved in all. Also worsened: adult obesity 33.5 → 34.2%; 8th-grade math (NAEP) 273.1 → 272.2 scale score. Also improved: unemployment rate 5.3 → 4.3%; firearm death rate 14.6 → 12.8 per 100,000; teen birth rate 13.9 → 12.6 per 1,000; uninsured, adults 18–64 12.6 → 11.6%. Years and caveats for each are on the card above.

Where the window starts and stops. Terms change hands on Jan. 20, but these are calendar-year figures, so 2025 is a year Biden governed about three weeks of — and it is also the next president's starting line. The same number closes this record and opens theirs.

Exogenous events inside this window — 1. COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023). Years these events touch are outliers on several series — those moves belong to the events at least as much as to anyone in office, so they are marked on every chart on this page, and no verdict here rests on a single year.

Not every series reaches the same year. Only unemployment rate, inflation (CPI), federal receipts carries a 2025 figure; the other 8 stop at 2024. Each row on the card states its own years.

Against other countries — 2 comparable outcomes. The U.S. sits ahead of the peer median on 1 of 2: unemployment rate (4.3% against a 5.44% median across 38 countries, 2025). That is a standing at the end of the term, not a move during it. The other 9 outcomes are not counted — a different definition abroad, no peer figure at the endpoint year, or no better direction to compare.

Tracked but not judged — 3 of 11. Inflation (CPI) (reported, not judged: this series has no single better direction); Total tax burden (reported, not judged: this series has no single better direction); Federal receipts (reported, not judged: this series has no single better direction). Counted in neither column above.

Why there is no grade: we built one, ran it, and it measured crisis timing rather than governance — whoever inherits a bad year looks good. And why there is no "if Biden were a governor" rank: for most of these outcomes the national number and the state numbers are the same measurement at two levels of aggregation, so the national figure tends to land inside the pack rather than at either end. We ran it anyway, and it could not separate the completed presidencies from one another — which makes it a description of arithmetic, not of a record. A president shares these outcomes with Congress, the Fed, the states and the world economy.

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The promises beyond the debt

context — accumulated under many presidents and Congresses

The debt is the number everyone quotes, but it is not the whole ledger. The government’s own audited balance sheet carried $47.78 trillion in total liabilities at the end of fiscal 2025$30.33 trillion of it the debt and its interest. The largest piece beyond the debt is $15.47 trillion of federal employee and veteran benefits payable: pensions and veterans’ compensation already earned, on the books but outside the borrowing figure. These obligations accumulated over decades, under many presidents and Congresses of both parties — they are context on every president’s page, and part of no one’s score. Source: Treasury’s Financial Report data.

$10T$20T$30T$40T$50T199920122025Recession of 2001 (NBER: Mar 2001 – Nov 2001)recession ’01The Great Recession (NBER: Dec 2007 – Jun 2009)Great Recession ’07–’09COVID-19 public health emergency (WHO PHEIC: Jan 30, 2020 – May 5, 2023)COVID-19 ’20–’23COVID-19 recession (NBER: Feb 2020 – Apr 2020)recession ’20all liabilities $47.78 trillionbenefits payable $15.47 trillion
Audited balance sheet of the U.S. Government, fiscal 19992025, in nominal dollars — no adjustment for inflation or the size of the economy. Y-axis starts at zero. Solid line: federal employee and veteran benefits payable. Dashed: total liabilities (the debt itself is the largest part). Source: Treasury, Financial Report of the U.S. Government. Shaded spans and dashed marks (dated on the rail below the chart): exogenous events — recessions as dated by the NBER, the COVID-19 emergency as dated by the WHO, and NOAA-recorded $100B+ hurricanes — the outlier years are theirs, not any one officeholder's.

And the promises not yet on any balance sheet

Separately from its balance sheet, the government publishes what its social-insurance programs — Social Security, Medicare and smaller programs — are projected to pay out beyond what their dedicated revenues are projected to collect: $88.40 trillion over the next 75 years, in present value, as of 2025-09-30. That is a projection of current law, not a liability — which is exactly why the government’s own statements publish it separately, and why this section does not add it to the figures above. Social Security’s trustees put their program’s share at $29.30 trillion and project the combined trust funds deplete in the third quarter of 2034, after which current-law income covers 83 percent of scheduled benefits (65 percent by 2100) — all under the Trustees' intermediate (best estimate) assumptions, set in February 2026, under current law. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.

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